The point spreads that I have aren't always as close to the ones Vegas has, but it's what I go by so you'll have to bear with me. Obviously lines will move as we move closer to Saturday and information and bets move popular opinion. Here's what I like so far:
1. Georgia State vs Oregon -45.5 Ok, yes the Ducks will be upset after losing to Michigan State and hey, it's the Ducks. But 46 points is a lot to cover and Georgia State has scored 20 and 34 in points in their last two games. The Ducks on the other hand have given up 42 and 28 points. 42 points to Eastern Washington who lost to Northern Iowa. Who is that? I have no idea, but it tells me that Eastern Washington isn't probably a power house and yet scored 42 points on Oregon. Will Oregon win? Absolutely. Will they keep their starters in there to cover a 46 point spread? Highly unlikely. 35 point win maybe, but not 46.
2. Memphis -3 vs Bowling Green Memphis just blew the doors off of Kansas at Kansas. The week before that they battered Missouri State like they stole something. They are a good team. Kansas is horrible, I get that. But Memphis was only a two touchdown favorite going into that game and they ended up winning by 32 points. Bowling Green. They lost to Tennessee by 29 points. It was closer than it sounded but they still lost by 4 touchdowns. Bowling Green then turned around and beat Maryland by 21 points. How good is Maryland? Eh. Not very. I see Memphis winning this game by at least two touchdowns. Their defense is good and when they get rolling their offense is better.
These two games are my locks. Georgia State +45.5 and Memphis -3. Easy money.
Other games of interest. Rutgers vs Penn State -10. Rutgers is like a runaway semi engulfed in flames headed down a mountain. They're going to make a spectacular explosion and they're going to take someone with them when they do. I see this game being decided by 7 points or less. Definitely not 10. I'd take Rutgers plus the points.
Ole Miss is currently a 6 point underdog to Alabama. I think Ole Miss wins, but I wouldn't touch that point spread. It may easily be decided in over time and if that's the case, 6 points isn't worth shit. I'm waiting to see what the over/under is for this game. I think it'll be high scoring and would take anything in the 40's.
TCU -37 vs SMU If TCU and Baylor are clones, then this spread is right on the money. Unless of course they're not and TCU is struggling. In which case SMU puts up as much of a fight as Minnesota and this game is closer. I'm guessing it's closer. I'd take SMU plus the points.
Western Kentucky +1.5 vs Indiana Western Kentucky opened up the season beating Vandy and laughing about it. They are mistake prone, but they're physical and will definitely beat you if you give them the chance. They beat Louisiana Tech last week and have shown they're capable. Indiana barely beat SIU and beat FIU by two touchdowns. Neither of these teams are great, but Indiana is supposed to be a power five team. They should have dominated. I predict Western Kentucky winning by 7.