Thursday, October 8, 2015

Picks for the Week - Week 6

Well that's better.  Last week I hit 5 out of 7.  Plus two random games I had a hunch on and was right about.  Let's see:

1. Notre Dame +2.5 - Win, just barely.
2. Army +27 - Win
3. Purdue +21 - Win
4. Wake Forest +19.5 - Win
5. San Jose State +20 - Win
6. SMU +5.5 - Loss, Looked great at the beginning and then ECU came back and crushed it
7. Texas +15 - Loss


Bama +2 - Win
Michigan -14.5 - Win

I should have called this the week of the underdogs.  Speaking of dogs, my Rebels really sucked it up this past week in Florida.  Notice I never mentioned that game.  After watching the dismal performance against Vandy, it was hard to predict which team was going to show up in Gainesville.  Welp, I'm not sure if anyone showed up to be quite honest. Lots to be upset about.  What's more disturbing is after the game the way Coach Freeze addressed his play calling in the red zone.  IF everyone executed then the calls would have worked fine? Sure. But they can't execute because they lack skills or training.  Either way, you should have gone with something else after the first two runs failed. What ever, I'm over it.  Hopefully we can right the ship as we have a big game coming up against Texas A&M in two weeks.  

This week they play New Mexico State as 43 point favorites.  I guess the idea is that Ole Miss will be mad after their loss and take it out on poor little NMSU. NMSU is 0-4 this year and would seemingly be a complete push over.  Ole Miss devoured the two cupcake games they played at the beginning of the year so logic dictates that Ole Miss will cover the 43 points. Oh and the weather will be fine. Don't forget to check the weather.  Despite all of this, I don't think Ole Miss covers. If I look at this game objectively I have to believe there are some issues going on with this team right now.  The defense still looks lost and has gotten burned routinely by short passes in the middle of their zone.  I love Treadwell, but he's dropping a lot of passes.  He's making up for it when one does stick, but a lot are going through his hands.  The impact players are doing well, but as a team it just doesn't seem to be there.  I don't think they get it together for this game.  On the other side NMSU scored 16 points (3 more than Ole Miss) against Florida.  They can score. I'd take NMSU plus the points.

But I will never bet against my team, so I won't take it.  I'm just saying.

Looking over the spreads this week and nothing really stood out to me as a completely wrong or unusual.  If anything I got the impression that the odds makers have this week really dialed in.  The superstitious side of me believes that's sign enough to abstain from betting this week.  The gambler side of me found the following games.

1. LSU -19.5 vs South Carolina.  This game started at -12 and then South Carolina flooded and they moved the game to the other Death Valley.  To be honest, South Carolina was going to lose either way, but the idea is that losing their home advantage means they're really going to get crushed.  I'm not sure.  I would have taken this game at -12 in Colombia, but now it's become this feel good weird story line and I'm not so certain this doesn't end up being a close game. LSU will win with Leonard Fournette, but I could see them easily letting up on the gas and letting the ole Ball Coach get close.  USC +19.5

2. Georgia -3 vs Tennessee.  HA. Ok, yes Georgia got stomped by Bama last week and Tennessee keeps beating themselves and keeping the score close as they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory but this is a meltdown of Rocky Top proportions just waiting to happen.  Quick someone check the weather.  Oh, rain in the morning? And Georgia has a great running game? Ok.  Yeah, I'm going to go with Georgia -3.  This is my lock for the week. 

3.  Georgia Tech +7 vs Clemson.  Classic trap game.  Clemson is coming off a big emotional victory over Notre Dame.  Georgia Tech still has a giant chip on their shoulder and the weird triple option.  Oh, wait the weather.  Didn't USC move because of rain? Thunderstorms.  Now the rain didn't seem to bother Clemson much against Notre Dame, but they did lose ground the harder it started to come down.  I think Clemson fails to get up for this game and that combined with the rain they lose her in classic Clemson fashion.  Georgia Tech +7

4.  Northwestern +7.5 vs Michigan.  What happens when you have two defensive giants battle it out?  Usually a really boring game.  The over/under for this game is 35.  Both teams have blanked an opponent twice and they are 1 and 2 for best defense with allowed points.  So is 35 a good under? I don't think so.  They both also have very good offenses and at some point something is going to give.  I think this ends up going over in the third quarter.  I'll take the over.

Again, most of the games seemed to be really dialed in and right where you would expect the odds to be.  I think Baylor covers the massive 45 points and I think Indiana +6.5 against Penn State is a good bet too.  I'm not sure if Michigan State and Ohio State will under perform again this week, but the odds look good that they'll struggle to cover.  Check the weather though.  The worse the weather, the harder to cover.

P.S. Missouri is going to beat Florida, because that's what they do.

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