Friday, October 23, 2015

Picks of the Week - Week 8

I'll be honest.  It's hard to get excited about football after watching your team get crushed again.

Ole Miss, you're breaking my heart.  To be fair, you've broken my heart so many times that it doesn't quite sting like it used to during the Tommy Tubberville era, but it still hurts.

So I'm not going to reflect on last week's game against Memphis, but instead comment on the fact that Ole Miss is favored by six points over Texas A&M.  Tunsil is coming back which will improve the line as players switch positions and hopefully fill back in their original spots.  This should provide some relief for the defense.

Texas A&M is banged up from Bama last week and will be sporting a slightly injured Kyle Allen and a slightly injured Myles Garrett.  Both are cleared to play, but injuries have a way to slow you down.

So is that enough? The optimist in me wants to believe that if Chad Kelly gets the time to make the throws we could see a lot of offense.  I also badly want to believe Dave Womack when he says the defense will get fixed.  However, the sulken angry fan wants to believe we'll never win a game again.

If I had to bet, I'd take A&M plus the points.

Speaking of bets, how did I do last week?  About as well as Ole Miss against Memphis.

Michigan -8.5 vs Michigan State - Loss
Ohio State - 17.5 vs Penn State - Loss
Boston College vs Clemson Under - Loss
Bama - 4 vs Texas A&M - Win
LSU -9.5 vs Florida - Loss

Vandy +2.5 vs USC - Win

It's important to always learn from your mistakes.  My lessons that have held up so far:

1. Always check the weather.  So far, most everything looks clear for the weekend so that should play a factor.  Next week could get interesting with the remnants of a hurricane.

2. Rivalry games do play a factor.  Michigan should have beat MSU, but the Spartans kept it close and lucked into a win.

3. Because they can, doesn't mean they will.  Teams get stingy with their players later in the season as injuries add up and they look down the schedule at harder teams.

Ok, keeping these lessons in mind, what does this week look like?

LSU -16.5 vs Western Kentucky

Instinct says that's a lot of points.  Western Kentucky has played a lot of teams close and defeated Vanderbilt.  LSU on the other hand is averaging a 20 point margin win over lower level teams.  Vandy held Western Kentucky to 14 points.  Against better defenses, they struggle.  LSU is a better defense.  Take LSU -16.5.

Alabama -15.5 vs UT

Alabama at home against a team that is young and on the verge of an implosion? Safe bet, take Bama -15.5.

USC -3.5 vs Utah

How an un-ranked USC is favored over number 3 Utah is beyond me. If your argument is that Utah hasn't been tested before against Michigan, Cal, ASU and Oregon, then when will you ever be happy?  Utah stays undefeated.  Utah plus the points.

Ohio State -21 vs Rutgers

Rutgers surprised us last week by beating the spoiler Indiana.  It was a close game, but they still won.  You know who else had a close game with Indiana? Ohio State.  Ohio State doesn't have the same pizzazz on the road and Rutgers is going to give it everything they have for this game.  Rutgers plus the points.

I've been really busy the last few weeks which is why these posts keep coming out late and I'm not watching nearly as much football as my inner fan would like.  Hopefully things will slow down so I can spend some more time on my couch.  In the mean time, best of luck.

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